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There is usually technology hype at the introduction of any new technology, but only after some time has passed can it be judged as mere hype or justified true acclaim. Because of the logistic curve nature of technology adoption, it is difficult to see in the early stages whether the hype is excessive. The two errors commonly committed in the early stages of a technology's development are[citation needed]: fitting an exponential curve to the first part of the growth curve, and assuming eternal exponential growth fitting a linear curve to the first part of the growth curve, and assuming that take-up of the new technology is disappointing Rogers' bell curve Similarly, in the later stages, the opposite mistakes can be made relating to the possibilities of technology maturity and market saturation. Technology adoption typically occurs in an S curve, as modelled in diffusion of innovations theory. This is because customers respond to new products in different ways. Diffusion of innovations theory, pioneered by Everett Rogers, posits that people have different levels of readiness for adopting new innovations and that the characteristics of a product affect overall adoption. Rogers classified individuals into five groups: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. In terms of the S curve, innovators occupy 2.5%, early adopters 13.5%, early majority 34%, late majority 34%, and laggards 16%. The four stages of technology life cycle are as follows: • Innovation stage: This stage represents the birth of a new product, material of process resulting from R&D activities. In R&D laboratories, new ideas are generated depending on gaining needs and knowledge factors. Depending on the resource allocation and also the change element, the time taken in the innovation stage as well as in the subsequent stages varies widely. • Syndication stage: This stage represents the demonstration and commercialisation of a new technology, such as, product, material or process with potential for immediate utilisation. Many innovations are put on hold in R&D laboratories. Only a very small percentage of these are commercialised. Commercialisation of research outcomes depends on technical as well non-technical, mostly economic factors. • Diffusion stage: This represents the market penetration of a new technology through acceptance of the innovation, by potential users of the technology. But supply and demand side factors jointly influence the rate of diffusion. • Substitution stage: This last stage represents the decline in the use and eventual extension of a technology, due to replacement by another technology. Many technical and non-technical factors influence the rate of substitution. The time taken in the substitution stage depends on the market dynamics. |
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