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After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 that ended the Cold War, the post–Cold War world was sometimes considered to be a unipolar world,[34][35] with the United States as the world's sole remaining superpower.[36] In the opinion of Samuel P. Huntington, "The United States, of course, is the sole state with preeminence in every domain of power – economic, military, diplomatic, ideological, technological, and cultural – with the reach and capabilities to promote its interests in virtually every part of the world."[37] Experts argue that this older assessment of global politics was too simplified, in part because of the difficulty in classifying the European Union at its current stage of development. Others argue that the notion of a superpower is outdated, considering complex global economic interdependencies, and propose that the world is multipolar.[38][39][40][41] According to Samuel P. Huntington, "There is now only one superpower. But that does not mean that the world is unipolar. A unipolar system would have one superpower, no significant major powers, and many minor powers." Huntington thinks, "Contemporary international politics" ... "is instead a strange hybrid, a uni-multipolar system with one superpower and several major powers."[37] A 2012 report by the National Intelligence Council said that America's superpower status will have eroded to merely being first among equals by 2030, but that the USA would still be the most important country in the world because of its influence in many different fields and global connections that the great regional powers of the time would not match.[42] Additionally, some experts have suggested the possibility of the United States losing its superpower status completely in the future. Citing speculation of the United States relative decline in power to the rest of the world, economic hardships, a declining dollar, Cold War allies becoming less dependent on the United States and the emergence of future powers around the world.[43][44][45][46] Some people doubt the existence of superpowers in the post Cold War era altogether, stating that today's complex global marketplace and the rising interdependency between the world's nations has made the concept of a superpower an idea of the past and that the world is now multipolar. However, the military dominance of the United States remains unquestioned, and its international influence has made it an eminent world power.[38][39][40][41] Hyperpower A Hyperpower is a state that dominates all other states in every sphere of activity.[citation needed] A hyperpower is traditionally[citation needed][dubious – discuss] considered to be one step higher than a superpower. Among those political commentators who felt that the United States had moved beyond superpower status after the fall of the Soviet Union, some felt a new term was needed to describe the United States' position.[47][48][49][50] French Minister Hubert Védrine used the term "hyperpower" in a speech in March 1998,[51] the earliest recorded use. It has also been applied retroactively to dominant empires of the past, including the Persian Empire, Roman Empire, Umayyad Caliphate, First French Empire, Mongol Empire, Ottoman Empire and British Empire.[52] In this use, it is usually understood to mean a power that greatly exceeds any other in its political environment along several axes; Rome did not dominate India or China, but did dominate the entire Mediterranean area militarily, culturally, and economically. Potential superpowers Main article: Potential superpowers The term 'Potential superpowers' has been applied by scholars and other qualified commentators to the possibility of several states achieving superpower status in the 21st century. Due to their large markets, growing military strength, economic potential and influence in international affairs; China,[53][54][55] the European Union,[56][57] India,[58] and Russia[59] are among the countries most cited as having the potential of achieving superpower status in the 21st century. However it is far from certain that some or all of these countries will ever emerge as superpowers. A number of historians, writers, critics have expressed doubts.[60][61][62] Furthermore, popular consensus among political scientists and other commentators, is that Brazil and Russia are simply emerging powers, as opposed to potential superpowers.[63] Pertinently, a country would need to achieve great power status first, before they could develop superpower status, and it could be disputed whether some of the countries listed above (e.g. India) are presently great powers. The record of such predictions has not been perfect. For example in the 1980s some commentators thought Japan would become a superpower, due to its large GDP and high economic growth at the time.[64] However, Japan's economy crashed in 1991, creating a long period of economic slump in the country known as The Lost Years. As of August 2012, Japan has not fully recovered from the 1991 crash.[65] |
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