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History of personal computers

2014-3-15 17:09| view publisher: amanda| views: 1002| wiki(57883.com) 0 : 0

description: The Programma 101, was the first commercial "desktop personal computer," produced by the Italian company Olivetti and invented by the Italian engineer Pier Giorgio Perotto. The project started in 1962 ...
The Programma 101, was the first commercial "desktop personal computer," produced by the Italian company Olivetti and invented by the Italian engineer Pier Giorgio Perotto. The project started in 1962. It was launched at the 1964 New York World's Fair, volume production started in 1965. Retail price $ 3,200.[3] Pier Giorgio Perotto also invented the magnetic card system.[3] Before the Programma 101 computers were as big as trucks and used only by men in white coats, Programma 101 was the size of a typewriter and accessible to all. NASA bought at least 10 Programma 101 and used them for the calculations for the 1969 Apollo 11 Moon landing. The ABC Television used the Programma 101 to predict the presidential election of 1969, the U.S. military to plan their operations in the Vietnam War . The Programma 101 was also used in schools, hospitals, government offices etc. etc. In 1968 due to the similarities of the machines, Hewlett-Packard was ordered to pay about $900,000 in royalties to Olivetti after copying some of the solutions adopted in the Programma 101, like the magnetic card, the architecture and other components too similar, the Hewlett-Packard 9100A.[3]

The Soviet MIR series of computers was developed from 1965 to 1969 in a group headed by Victor Glushkov. It was designed as a relatively small-scale computer for use in engineering and scientific applications and contained a hardware implementation of a high-level programming language. Another innovative feature for that time was the user interface combining a keyboard with a monitor and light pen for correcting texts and drawing on screen.[4]

In what was later to be called the Mother of All Demos, SRI researcher Douglas Engelbart in 1968 gave a preview of what would become the staples of daily working life in the 21st century - e-mail, hypertext, word processing, video conferencing and the mouse. The demonstration required technical support staff and a mainframe time-sharing computer that were far too costly for individual business use at the time.



Commodore PET in 1983 (at American Museum of Science and Energy)
By the early 1970s, people in academic or research institutions had the opportunity for single-person use of a computer system in interactive mode for extended durations, although these systems would still have been too expensive to be owned by a single person.

In 1973 the IBM Los Gatos Scientific Center developed a portable computer prototype called SCAMP (Special Computer APL Machine Portable) based on the IBM PALM processor with a Philips compact cassette drive, small CRT and full function keyboard. SCAMP emulated an IBM 1130 minicomputer in order to run APL\1130.[5] In 1973 APL was generally available only on mainframe computers, and most desktop sized microcomputers such as the Wang 2200 or HP 9800 offered only BASIC. Because SCAMP was the first to emulate APL\1130 performance on a portable, single user computer, PC Magazine in 1983 designated SCAMP a "revolutionary concept" and "the world's first personal computer".[5][6] This seminal, single user portable computer now resides in the Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C.. Successful demonstrations of the 1973 SCAMP prototype led to the IBM 5100 portable microcomputer launched in 1975 with the ability to be programmed in both APL and BASIC for engineers, analysts, statisticians and other business problem-solvers. In the late 1960s such a machine would have been nearly as large as two desks and would have weighed about half a ton.[5]

Another seminal product in 1973 was the Xerox Alto, developed at Xerox's Palo Alto Research Center (PARC), it had a graphical user interface (GUI) that later served as inspiration for Apple Computer's Macintosh, and Microsoft's Windows operating system. Also in 1973 Hewlett Packard introduced fully BASIC programmable microcomputers that fit entirely on top of a desk, including a keyboard, a small one-line display and printer. The Wang 2200 microcomputer of 1973 had a full-size cathode ray tube (CRT) and cassette tape storage.[7] These were generally expensive specialized computers sold for business or scientific uses. The introduction of the microprocessor, a single chip with all the circuitry that formerly occupied large cabinets, led to the proliferation of personal computers after 1975.



IBM Personal Computer XT in 1988
Early personal computers — generally called microcomputers — were sold often in kit form and in limited volumes, and were of interest mostly to hobbyists and technicians. Minimal programming was done with toggle switches to enter instructions, and output was provided by front panel lamps. Practical use required adding peripherals such as keyboards, computer displays, disk drives, and printers. Micral N was the earliest commercial, non-kit microcomputer based on a microprocessor, the Intel 8008. It was built starting in 1972 and about 90,000 units were sold. In 1976 Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak sold the Apple I computer circuit board, which was fully prepared and contained about 30 chips. The first successfully mass marketed personal computer was the Commodore PET introduced in January 1977, but backordered and not available until later in the year. At the same times was introduced the Apple II (usually referred to as the "Apple") (June 1977), and the TRS-80 from Tandy Corporation / Tandy Radio Shack at summer 77, delivered in september in a small number, and the only one for this year, massivly (more than ten thousands... staff plans only two) since November 1977. Mass-market ready-assembled computers allowed a wider range of people to use computers, focusing more on software applications and less on development of the processor hardware.

During the early 1980s, home computers were further developed for household use, with software for personal productivity, programming and games. They typically could be used with a television already in the home as the computer display, with low-detail blocky graphics and a limited color range, and text about 40 characters wide by 25 characters tall. One such machine, the ZX Spectrum introduced at 1982, totaled 8 million unit sold. Following came the Commodore 64, totaled 17 million units sold, making it the best-selling single personal computer model of all time.[8][9] Another such computer, the NEC PC-98, sold more than 18 million units.[10]

Somewhat larger and more expensive systems (for example, running CP/M), or sometimes a home computer with additional interfaces and devices, although still low-cost compared with minicomputers and mainframes, were aimed at office and small business use, typically using "high resolution" monitors capable of at least 80 column text display, and often no graphical or color drawing capability.

Workstations were characterized by high-performance processors and graphics displays, with large local disk storage, networking capability, and running under a multitasking operating system.



IBM 5150 as of 1981
Eventually, due to the influence of the IBM PC on the personal computer market, personal computers and home computers lost any technical distinction. Business computers acquired color graphics capability and sound, and home computers and game systems users used the same processors and operating systems as office workers. Mass-market computers had graphics capabilities and memory comparable to dedicated workstations of a few years before. Even local area networking, originally a way to allow business computers to share expensive mass storage and peripherals, became a standard feature of personal computers used at home.

In 1982 "The Computer" was named Machine of the Year by Time Magazine.

In the 2010s, several companies such as Hewlett-Packard and Sony sold off their PC and laptop divisions. As a result, the personal computer was declared dead several times during this time.[11]

Market and sales__
See also: Market share of personal computer vendors


Personal computers worldwide in million distinguished by developed and developing world
In 2001, 125 million personal computers were shipped in comparison to 48,000 in 1977.[12] More than 500 million personal computers were in use in 2002 and one billion personal computers had been sold worldwide from the mid-1970s up to this time. Of the latter figure, 75 percent were professional or work related, while the rest were sold for personal or home use. About 81.5 percent of personal computers shipped had been desktop computers, 16.4 percent laptops and 2.1 percent servers. The United States had received 38.8 percent (394 million) of the computers shipped, Europe 25 percent and 11.7 percent had gone to the Asia-Pacific region, the fastest-growing market as of 2002. The second billion was expected to be sold by 2008.[13] Almost half of all the households in Western Europe had a personal computer and a computer could be found in 40 percent of homes in United Kingdom, compared with only 13 percent in 1985.[14]

The global personal computer shipments were 350.9 million units in 2010,[15] 308.3 million units in 2009[16] and 302.2 million units in 2008.[17][18] The shipments were 264 million units in the year 2007, according to iSuppli,[19] up 11.2 percent from 239 million in 2006.[20] In 2004, the global shipments were 183 million units, an 11.6 percent increase over 2003.[21] In 2003, 152.6 million computers were shipped, at an estimated value of $175 billion.[22] In 2002, 136.7 million PCs were shipped, at an estimated value of $175 billion.[22] In 2000, 140.2 million personal computers were shipped, at an estimated value of $226 billion.[22] Worldwide shipments of personal computers surpassed the 100-million mark in 1999, growing to 113.5 million units from 93.3 million units in 1998.[23] In 1999, Asia had 14.1 million units shipped.[24]

As of June 2008, the number of personal computers in use worldwide hit one billion,[25] while another billion is expected to be reached by 2014. Mature markets like the United States, Western Europe and Japan accounted for 58 percent of the worldwide installed PCs. The emerging markets were expected to double their installed PCs by 2012 and to take 70 percent of the second billion PCs. About 180 million computers (16 percent of the existing installed base) were expected to be replaced and 35 million to be dumped into landfill in 2008. The whole installed base grew 12 percent annually.[26][27]

Based on International Data Corporation (IDC) data for Q2 2011, for the first time China surpassed US in PC shipments by 18.5 million and 17.7 million respectively. This trend reflects the rising of emerging markets as well as the relative stagnation of mature regions.[28]

In the developed world, there has been a vendor tradition to keep adding functions to maintain high prices of personal computers. However, since the introduction of the One Laptop per Child foundation and its low-cost XO-1 laptop, the computing industry started to pursue the price too. Although introduced only one year earlier, there were 14 million netbooks sold in 2008.[29] Besides the regular computer manufacturers, companies making especially rugged versions of computers have sprung up, offering alternatives for people operating their machines in extreme weather or environments.[30]

Deloitte consulting firm predicted that in 2011, smartphones and tablet computers as computing devices would surpass the PCs sales.[31] As of 2013, worldwide sales of PCs had begun to fall as many consumers moved to tablets and smartphones for gifts and personal use. Sales of 90.3 million units in the 4th quarter of 2012 represented a 4.9% decline from sales in the 4th quarter of 2011.[32] Global PC sales fell sharply in the first quarter of 2013, according to IDC data. The 14% year-over-year decline was the largest on record since the firm began tracking in 1994, and double what analysts had been expecting.[33][34] The decline of Q2 2013 PC shipments marked the fifth straight quarter of falling sales.[35] "This is horrific news for PCs," remarked an analyst. "It’s all about mobile computing now. We have definitely reached the tipping point."[33] Data from Gartner Inc. showed a similar decline for the same time period.[33] China's Lenovo Group bucked the general trend as strong sales to first time buyers in the developing world allowed the company's sales to stay flat overall.[33] Windows 8, which was designed to look similar to tablet/smartphone software, was cited as a contributing factor in the decline of new PC sales. "Unfortunately, it seems clear that the Windows 8 launch not only didn’t provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market," said IDC Vice President Bob O’Donnell.[34]

Analysts predict that 2013 personal computer sales will exceed 300 million worldwide, while tablet sales are expected to reach 200 million.[33] In comparison, smartphone sales could exceed a billion units in 2013.[33] In August 2013, Credit Suisse published research findings that attributed around 75 percent of the operating profit share of the PC industry to Microsoft (operating system) and Intel (semiconductors).[36]

According to IDC, in 2013 PC shipments dropped by 9.8 percent as the greatest drop-ever in line with consumers trends to use mobile devices.[37]

Average selling price__
Selling prices of personal computers, unlike other consumer commodities, steadily declined due to lower costs of production and manufacture. Capabilities of the computers also increased. In 1975, an Altair kit sold for only around US $400, but required customers to solder components into circuit boards; peripherals required to interact with the system in alphanumeric form instead of blinking lights would add another $2,000, and the resultant system was only of use to hobbyists.[38]

At their introduction in 1981, the US $1,795 price of the Osborne 1 and its competitor Kaypro was considered an attractive price point; these systems had text-only displays and only floppy disks for storage. By 1982, Michael Dell observed that a personal computer system selling at retail for about $3,000 US was made of components that cost the dealer about $600; typical gross margin on a computer unit was around $1,000.[39] The total value of personal computer purchases in the US in 1983 was about $4 billion, comparable to total sales of pet food. By late 1998, the average selling price of personal computer systems in the United States had dropped below $1,000.[40]

For Microsoft Windows systems, the average selling price (ASP) showed a decline in 2008/2009, possibly due to low-cost netbooks, drawing $569 for desktop computers and $689 for laptops at U.S. retail in August 2008. In 2009, ASP had further fallen to $533 for desktops and to $602 for notebooks by January and to $540 and $560 in February.[41] According to research firm NPD, the average selling price of all Windows portable PCs has fallen from $659 in October 2008 to $519 in October 2009.[42]

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