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Several authors have become recognized as futurists. They research trends, particularly in technology, and write their observations, conclusions, and predictions. In earlier eras, many futurists were at academic institutions. John McHale, author of The Future of the Future, published a 'Futures Directory', and directed a think tank called The Centre For Integrative Studies at a university. Futurists have started consulting groups or earn money as speakers, with examples including Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt and Patrick Dixon. Frank Feather is a business speaker that presents himself as a pragmatic futurist. Some futurists have commonalities with science fiction, and some science-fiction writers, such as Arthur C. Clarke, are known as futurists.[citation needed] In the introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula K. Le Guin distinguished futurists from novelists, writing of the study as the business of prophets, clairvoyants, and futurists. In her words, "a novelist's business is lying". A survey of 108 futurists[35] found the following shared assumptions: We are in the midst of a historical transformation. Current times are not just part of normal history. Multiple perspectives are at heart of futures studies, including unconventional thinking, internal critique, and cross-cultural comparison. Consideration of alternatives. Futurists do not see themselves as value-free forecasters, but instead aware of multiple possibilities. Participatory futures. Futurists generally see their role as liberating the future in each person, and creating enhanced public ownership of the future. This is true worldwide.[clarification needed] Long term policy transformation. While some are more policy-oriented than others, almost all believe that the work of futurism is to shape public policy, so it consciously and explicitly takes into account the long term. Part of the process of creating alternative futures and of influencing public (corporate, or international) policy is internal transformation. At international meetings, structural and individual factors are considered equally important. Complexity. Futurists believe that a simple one-dimensional or single-discipline orientation is not satisfactory. Trans-disciplinary approaches that take complexity seriously are necessary. Systems thinking, particularly in its evolutionary dimension, is also crucial. Futurists are motivated by change. They are not content merely to describe or forecast. They desire an active role in world transformation. They are hopeful for a better future as a "strange attractor". Most believe they are pragmatists in this world, even as they imagine and work for another. Futurists have a long term perspective. Sustainable futures, understood as making decisions that do not reduce future options, that include policies on nature, gender and other accepted paradigms. This applies to corporate futurists and the NGO. Environmental sustainability is reconciled with the technological, spiritual and post-structural ideals. Sustainability is not a "back to nature" ideal, but rather inclusive of technology and culture. |
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