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Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere,[45] oceans, land surface and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes; from the study of the dynamics of the weather and climate system, to projections of future climate. All climate models balance, or very nearly balance, incoming energy as short wave (including visible) electromagnetic radiation to the earth with outgoing energy as long wave (infrared) electromagnetic radiation from the earth. Any imbalance results in a change in the average temperature of the earth. The most talked-about applications of these models in recent years have been their use to infer the consequences of increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, primarily carbon dioxide (see greenhouse gas). These models predict an upward trend in the global mean surface temperature, with the most rapid increase in temperature being projected for the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Models can range from relatively simple to quite complex: Simple radiant heat transfer model that treats the earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy this can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models), or horizontally finally, (coupled) atmosphere–ocean–sea ice global climate models discretise and solve the full equations for mass and energy transfer and radiant exchange.[46] Climate forecasting is a way by some scientists are using to predict climate change. In 1997 the prediction division of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University began generating seasonal climate forecasts on a real-time basis. To produce these forecasts an extensive suite of forecasting tools was developed, including a multimodel ensemble approach that required thorough validation of each model's accuracy level in simulating interannual climate variability.[47] |
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